Economic factors affecting the volatility of tax revenues

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Abstract

Diversification of income sources is a strategic policy application in economics and management. Deal with the diversity makes it possible to access a more stable financial management objectives and its performance. In this paper, the effects of some variables such as fluctuations in GDP, tax diversification index, the share of indirect taxes, the tax to GDP ratio, oil income growth rate, GDP per capita, the share of agriculture value added, Gini coefficient on government tax income fluctuations are examined by using ARDL regression model.
The results of estimating the regression model show that tax structure and the structure of the economy are important to bring stability for the combination of government tax revenue. In addition the tax structure and tax consequences affects on performance.

Keywords


عباسیان، عزت­الله و فشی، فرزانه (1394)؛ ظرفیت مالی، جایگزینی برای درآمدهای نفتی در اقتصاد ایران، فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی در ایران، دوره 4، شماره 15.
عرب مازار ، عباس و دیگران (1386)؛ برآورد بالقوه اقتصادی مالیات در ایران ، فصلنامه تخصص مالیات، دوره جدید، شماره دوم، مسلسل 50.
موسوی، میرحسین و دیگران (1386)؛ تحلیل نظری وضع مالیات بهینه با توجه به الگوی تخصص زمان، پژوهشنامه اقتصادی ، دوره 8، شماره 2 (پیاپی 29).
Brien, S. (2006); Cyclical Volatility in Local Taxes: A Look at County Finance in Georgia. Unpublished term paper. Andrew Young School of Urban and Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
Bruce, Fox and Tuttle (2006); Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi-State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics, Southern Economic Journal 2006, 73(2)
Carroll, D. A. (2007); Diversifying Municipal Government Revenue Structures: Fiscal Illusion or Instability? Paper presented at the 19th Annual Conference of Association for Budgeting and Financial Management.
Christian E. and Helene E. (2011); T AX R Revenue Instability in Sub– Saharan Africa: Consequences and Remedies, Journal of African Economics, 1-27.
Cornia, G. C. and Nelson, R. D. (2010); State tax revenue growth and volatility.     Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economic Development, 6(1): 23–58.
Dissart, J. C. (2003); Regional Economic Diversity and Regional Economic Stability: Research Results and Agenda. International Regional Science Review, 26(4): 423-446.
Dye, R. F. and Merriman, D. F. (2004); State Revenue Stability: Alternative Conceptualizations. Paper presented at the National Tax Association Annual Conference. Session Title: New Ideas about State Fiscal Stability.
Ebeke, C. and Ehrhart, H., (2011); Does Vat Reduce the Instability of Tax Revenues?. CERDI, Etudes et Documents, E 2011. 24, August.
Garrett, Thomas A. (2009); Evaluating State Tax Revenue Variability: A Portfolio Approach, Applied Economics Letters, Volume 16, Issue 3.
Hicks, J.R, (1974); Value and Capital, Oxford Univ. Press, Third Edition.
Shamsub, H. and Akoto, J. B. (2004); State and Local Fiscal Structures and Fiscal Stress. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 16(1): 40.
Siegel, P. B. and Johnson, T. G. (1995); Regional economic diversity and diversification. Growth & Change, 26(2): 261.
Sobel, R. S. and Holcombe, R. G. (1996); MEASURING THE GROWTH AND VARIABILITY OF TAX BASES OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE. National Tax Journal, 49(4): 535-552.
Yan, W. (2010); The Impact of Revenue Diversification and Economic Base on State Revenue Stability. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management.