Estimation Non-Linearity Effect of Rent Seeking Opportunities on Volume of Private Sector Bank Deposits in Iranian Economy: Using Markov-Switching Model

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Abstract

Investment is financed through deposits of individuals in banks that hence affect on trend of investment and production in society. The various factors influence private deposits in banks. This paper investigates the non-linearity effect of rent seeking opportunities on volume of deposits in Iranian economy during the period of (1350-1389). For this purpose, The trend of Rent-Seeking opportunities have been simulated by three input variable that include exchange rate, the ratio of building added value to GDP and the size of government using Fuzzy logic in first step. Then, in the second step nonlinearity relation is evaluated between Rent-Seeking (Fuzzy Output) and Private sector bank deposits using Markov-Switching model. Experimental results showed that rent-seeking has negative impact on bank deposits in first regime and these have not relation in second and third regime. In first regime Rent-Seeking by -0/21 factor has most negative impact on Rent-Seeking. In fact, rent seeking opportunities motivate individuals that shift their deposits from formal market to informal market in order to more profits.

Keywords


اصغرپور، حسین؛ مهدیلو، علی و اسماعیلی، میثم (1393)؛ بررسی عوامل تعیین­کننده نرخ ارز مؤثر واقعی در ایران با استفاده از رگرسیون فازی، پژوهش­های کاربردی اقتصادی، شماره اول: 56-29.
آذر، عادل و فرجی، حجت (1386)؛ علم مدیریت فازی. مؤسسه کتاب مهربان نشر، تهران.
خضری، محمد (1387)؛ اقتصاد سیاسی رانت جویی در بودجه‌ریزی دولتی ایران، پژوهشنامه علوم سیاسی، 72-39.
صادقی، حسین و شکیبایی، علیرضا (1382)؛ مدل‌سازی اقتصاد زیرزمینی با روش منطق فازی. مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی، شماره 62: 175-194.
صادقی، حسین؛ وفایی­یگانه، رضا؛ محمدغفاری، حسن و مسائلی، ارشک (1389)؛ برآورد روند هزینه‌های مبادله در اقتصاد ایران با رویکرد منطق فازی، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی، شماره سوم، 125-149.
زاهدی، مرتضی (1378)؛ تئوری مجموعه فازی و کاربرد آن، نشر کتاب دانشگاهی، تهران.
عباسی­نژاد، حسین و یاری، حمید (1388)؛ تأثیر شوک­های نفتی بر قیمت مسکن در ایران، مجله پژوهش­های اقتصادی، سال نهم، شماره اول، 77- 59.
مهدیلو، علی؛ صادقی، حسین و عصاری، عباس (1394)؛ برآورد تأثیر غیرخطی فرصت‌های رانت‌جویی بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران؛ با استفاده از مدل مارکوف سوییچینگ، پژوهش­های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، شماره 18: 30-11.
Auty, R. M. (2001); Resource Abundance and Economic Development. Oxford University Press. Oxford.
Auty, R. M. (2007); “Natural resources, capital accumulation and the resource curse”. Ecological Economics. Vol.61: 627-634.
Caballero, R. J., and Yared, P. (2010) Future rent seeking and current public saving, Journal of International Economics, 82(2): 124-136.
Chen, C.; Li, Z.; Su, X. and Sun, Z. (2011); “ Rent-seeking incentives, Private firms and Government”, Journal of Corporate Finance, 17: 229-243.
Chung, Ming Kuang. (2002); “Lecture on the Markov Switching model”. URL: www.sinica.edu.tw/as/ssrc/ckuan.1-40.
Demirbas, D. (1999); Rent-Seeking and Growth in Turkey. Econ.Metu. Tr/ERC/of 35c.htm.
Enders, W. (2004); “Regime Switches in Interest Rates”. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association. 20: 163-82.
Gang, I. and Epstein, G. (2009); Good governance and good aid allocation. Journal of Development Economics, 89: 12-18.
Gelb, A. H. (1988); Oil Windfalls, Blessing or Curse. Oxford University Press. Oxford.
Giles, AD. (1999); A Fuzzy Logic Approach Modelling the Underground Economy. Econometric s Working Paper. EWP9910. Department of Economics. University of Victoria.
Gunning, J. (2000); Understanding Democracy; An Introduction to Public Choice, Nomad Press.
Hall, R., and Jones, C. (1999); Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?. Journal of Economics. 83-116.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989); A new approach to the economic analysis of non-stationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57: 357-384.
Iqbal, N. and Daly, V. (2013); Rent Seeking Opportunities and Economic Growth in Trasitional Economies. PIED Working Papers.
Khan, M. H. (2000); Rent- Seeking and Economic Development. Cambridge University press.
Krueger, A. (1974); The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society. American Economic Review. June, 291-303.
Kunieda, T.; Okada, K. and Shibata, A. (2014); “Corruption, capital account liberalization, and economic growth: Theory and evidence”, International Economics, Volume 139: 80-108.
Leite, C. and Weidman, J. (1999); Does Mather Nature Corrupt? Natural Resources Corruption and Economics Growth. African and Research Departments. International Monetary Fund. WP/99/85.
Mauro, P. (1996); The Effects of Corruption on Growth, Investment and Government Expenditure. IMF Working Papers 96/98.
Murphy, K. M.; Andrei, S. and Vishny, R. (1993); Why is Rent-Seeking So Costly to Growth?. The American Economic Review. 409-414.
Park, H.; Philippopoulos, A. and Vassilatos, V. (2005); Choosing the size of the public sector under Rent Seeking from state coffers. European Journal of Political Economy. Vol.21: 830-850.
Park, J (2012); “Corruption, banking sector and economic growth: A cross-country study”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 31: 907-929.
Weill, L. (2011); “How corruption affects bank lending in Russia”, Economic Systems, Volume 35: 230-243.
Yingfu Xie.; Jun Yu and Bo Ranneby (2007); “A General Autoregressive Model with Markov Switching: Estimation and Consistency. Research Report”, Centre of Biostochastics,
Zadeh, L. A. (1965); Fuzzy sets. Inform. Control 8: 338-353.