A Study of the Effect of Population Growth on Per Capita GDP in Iran Using an ARDL Appraoch

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Abstract

The Population and its Related Properties, Is The Foundation and Cornerstone of any Planning and Policy. Economic Growth of any Society is a Sign of Welfare. Among the Most Important Factors that Influence the Economic Welfare of the Country Population. Therefore, the Present Study Sought to Examine and Analyze the Impact of Population on GDP Per Capita in The Country in The Period 1360-1390 using Iterative Methods Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) .The Results Show That the Coefficients of The Variables That Affect all Economic Theories and Models in Accordance With The Long-Term Fertility Rate Significantly Positive Effect on The Welfare State. Also Coefficient of Error Correction Shows That in Every Year about 53 Percent of The Lack of Balance Short Term for Long Term Access to Balance Adjustment.

Keywords


ادیبی ­سده، مهدی؛ سیاهپوش، اسحق ­ارجمند و درویش ­زاده، زهرا (1390)؛ بررسی میزان افزایش باروری و عوامل مؤثر بر آن در میان طایفه کرد ساکن اندیمشک، مجله مطالعات توسعه اجتماعی ایران. 4(1): 98-81.
حسینى، حاتم (1390)؛جمعیت­شناسى اقتصادى اجتماعى و تنظیم خانواده، چاپ چهارم، ویراست دوّم، همدان: انتشارات دانشگاه بوعلى سینا.
دلالی اصفهانی، رحیم و اسمعیل­زاده، رضا (1386)؛ نگرشی نو بر ایده­های جمعیتی( بازبینی اندیشه­های مالتوس، کینز و بکر)، مجله علوم اجتماعی دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، 4(9): 120-97.
عسگری ندوشن، عباس؛ افشانی، سیدعلیرضا و عسگری ندوشن، سمیه (1390)؛ آهنگ توسعه و سرعت کاهش باروری در کشورهای رو به توسعه، فصلنامه علمی- پژوهشی رفاه اجتماعی،12(47):110-85.
عرب مازار، عباس و کشوری شاد، علی (1384)؛ بررسی اثر تغییر ساختار سنی جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی، فصلنامه پژوهش­های اقتصادی، 5(15): 51-27.
محرابیان، آزاده و صدقی­سیگارچی، نازیلا (1389)؛ تأثیر رشد جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای چهار گروه درآمدی، فصلنامه علوم اقتصادی، 5(13): 114-97.
نوفرستی، محمد(1387)، ریشه واحد و همجمعی در اقتصاد سنجی، رسا، تهران.
Banerjee, A., and et al. (1993); "Co-Integration, Error-Correction, and The Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data". Advanced Texts in Econometrics. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Becker, G. S. and Glaser E. L. (1999); “Marphy K.M Population and Economic Growth”, American Economic Review, 89(2): 144-149.
Cervellati, M. and Sunde, U. (2011); “Life Expectancy and Economic Growth: The Role of The Demographic Transition”, Journal of Economic Growth, 16(2): 99-133
Dawson, P. J. and Tiffin, R. (1998); “Is There a Long-Run Relationship Between Population Growth and Living Standards? the Case of India”, The Journal of Development Studies, 5(34): 149-156.
Dacosta, M. and Carroll, W., (2001); “Township and village Enterprises, Openness and Regional Economic Growth in China”, Post-Communist Economies, 13(1): 229-241.
Ehrlich, I. and Lui, F. T. (1999); “Bureaucratic Corruption and Endogenous Economic Growth”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 107(6): 205-242.
Hassan, G. and Cooray. A. (2012); “The Effect of Female and Male Health on Economic Growth: Cross-Country Evidence Within a Production Function Framework”, Proceedings of The 41 st Australian Conference of Economists, 1-29.
Malthus, T. R. (1992); An Essay on the Principle of  Population, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Magnus, J. and Eric Foscu. (2006); Bounds testing approach: An examination of foreign direct investment, trade, and growth relationships, MPRA paper, 352.
Prettner, K. and Bloom, D. E. and Strulik, H. (2013); “Declining Fertility and Economic Well-Belling: Do Education and Health Ride to The Rescue?”, labour Economics, (22): 70-79.
Pesaran , M. H. and et al. (2001); “ Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of level Relationships”, .Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326.
Pesaran , M. H. and Shin. Y. (1996); “ Co-Integration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium”, Journal of Econometrics, 71: 43-117.
Sauas, Bilal. (2008); “The Relationship Between Population and Economic Growth”, Central  Journal of Asian Economice, 22(3): 183-161.
Wrigley, E. A. (1986); “Elegance and Experience: Malthus at the Bar in History”, Journal of Population and Reproductive Health, 19(86): 46-63.