Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran

Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran

Investigating the Effects of Pension Fund Deficit Shocks on Inflation, Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Iran Using the DSGE Model

Document Type : Research Article

Author
Bager Adabi Firozjaei
Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Sport Sciences, Gonbad Kavous University, Gonbad Kavous, Iran.
10.22084/aes.2026.32111.3872
Abstract
The financial crisis of pension funds in recent years has not only affected the country’s social security system but has also disrupted the country’s economic order, with a major share of the government budget deficit related to retirees’ compensation. Subsequently, these effects spill over into macroeconomic variables. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of pension fund shocks on key macroeconomic variables, including inflation, the exchange rate, and economic growth, based on the DSGE model by incorporating the pension fund sector. The results from calibration and the Bayesian method, utilizing quarterly data of the Iranian economy during the period 1380–1400, confirm the structural problem of pension funds and their persistent imbalance. The results of the impulse response functions (IRFs) indicate that a shock to the pension fund, through pressure on the government budget, leads to an expansion of the monetary base and subsequently causes inflation, which becomes permanent in the long run. In addition, the impact of this shock causes an increase in the nominal exchange rate and subsequently a decrease in the real exchange rate, thereby weakening competitiveness. The pension fund shock increases production in the short run due to the demand effect; however, after one period, a reduction in private sector investment—stemming from the crowding-out effect and an insecure investment environment resulting from inflation and high exchange rates—causes production growth to decrease, and this negative trend continues for several periods. Overall, the research findings explicitly confirm that the pension fund crisis has become a structural macroeconomic constraint that directly threatens price stability, causes exchange rate volatility, and leads to unstable growth in Iran. Accordingly, alongside parametric reforms (such as adjustments to the retirement age and premiums), implementing immediate structural reforms in the pension system—including moving toward a fully funded system, enhancing financial transparency, and improving fund asset management—is proposed as an undeniable necessity for Iran’s economy to escape the vicious cycle of stagflation.
Keywords
Pension Funds
Inflation
Exchange Rate
Output Growth
DSGE Model
Subjects
- ابوالحسنی، اصغر؛ مهرآرا، محسن؛ و خواجه محمدلو، علی، (1402). تابع واکنش سیاست‌گذار پولی در اقتصاد ایران: رهیافت تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE). بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران، 10 (20): 37-1. https://doi.org/10.22103/jdc.2023.20626.1322
- ادبی فیروزجائی، باقر؛ و حسینی، سیدشمس­الدین، (1403). شناسایی و اولویت­بندی راهکارهای اصلاح نظام بازنشستگی نیروهای مسلح. فصلنامه اقتصاد دفاع و توسعه پایدار، 9(31)، 34-9. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.25382454.1403.9.31.1.5
- ادبی فیروزجائی، باقر؛ و غلامی، احمد، (1403). بررسی اثر قیمت‌های جهانی بر پویایی های اقتصاد ایران با تأکید بر تورم مواد غذایی در چارچوب مدل تعادل عمومی تصادفی. سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی، 16(31)، 231-187. https://doi.org/10.22034/epj.2024.20260.2449
- ادبی فیروزجائی، باقر؛ غلامی، احمد؛ و سلیمی، احسان، (1403). آثار نامتقارن سیاست‌های اقتصادی بر بخش مسکن با استفاده از رویکرد تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی. اقتصاد و تجارت نوین، 19 (63)، 68-29. https://doi.org/10.30465/jnet.2024.48081.2122
- توکلیان، حسین، (1394). سیاست‌گذاری پولی بهینه، مبتنی بر قاعده و صلاحدیدی در جهت رسیدن به اهداف تورمی برنامه‌های پنج‌ساله توسعه: یک رویکرد تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی. پژوهش های پولی و بانکی، 8 (23)، 38-1. http://jmbr.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-225-en.html
- جوادی، شاهین؛ و ایزدبخش، حمیدرضا، (1403). سلسله گزارش های تحلیل و شبیه سازی سیستمی (1): راهکارهای ارتقای پایداری صندوق های بازنشستگی. دفتر مطالعات اجتماعی، مرکز شبیه سازی و مطالعات سیستمی، مطالعات بخش عمومی، مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس، شماره مسلسل (20073). https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2024.1403.32.7.20073
- چنارانی، حسن؛ یاوری، کاظم؛ حیدری، حسن؛ و شریف زاده، محمدجواد، (1402). اثر بحران بانکی (ناترازی) بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی در چارچوب مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی. فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 12 (46)، 38-9. https://doi.org/10.22084/aes.2021.25066.3359
- رضازاده، حمید؛ سرگلزایی، مصطفی؛ و پیمانی فروشانی، مسلم، (1403). تأثیر اصلاحات ساختاری نظام بازنشستگی بر اقتصاد و بازار سرمایه کشور بر اساس مدل نسلهای همپوشان.  دانش سرمایه‌گذاری، 13 (52)، 468-447. https://doi.org/10.30495/jik.2024.23165
- رییس جعفری مطلق، رسول؛ عبدلی، قهرمان؛ نصیری اقدم، علی؛ و امیری، حسین، (1399). بررسی آثار تغییرات جمعیتی بر پایداری مالی صندوق بازنشستگی با استفاده از مدل نسل‌های همپوشان مبتنی بر رویکرد DSGE . فصلنامه پژوهش­ها و سیاست­های اقتصادی، ۲۸ (۹۶)، 162-121. https://doi.org/10.22075/ijnaa.2021.23252.2589
- شکری، نعیم؛ عصاری آرانی، عباس؛ عسگری، علی؛ مزینی، امیرحسین؛ و اکبری، نعمت اله، (1401). شبیه‌سازی و اعمال اصلاحات پارامتریک جهت بهبود ناترازی مالی نظام بازنشستگی ایران. پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی، 4 (22)، 67-41. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/haljournl/hal-05205798.htm.
- صمصامی، حسین؛ و بختیاری، احمد، (1401). بررسی اثرات تأمین کسری بودجه بخش دولتی از سیستم بانکی: شواهدی از الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی. تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی، ۱۳ (۴۹)، ۱5۲-۱1۲. http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2306-en.html
- قاسمی سیانی، مهدی، (1403). بررسی عملکرد سرمایه گذاری های صندوق بازنشستگی کشوری. دفتر مطالعات بخش عمومی، گروه اقتصاد رفاه و تأمین اجتماعی مرکز پژوهش های مجلس، شماره مسلسل (20047). https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.1.20620
- کیانی، مرتضی، (1403). بررسی بخش دوم لایحه بودجه سال 1403 (6): (بخش صندوق های بازنشستگی). دفتر مطالعات بخش عمومی مرکز پژوهش های مجلس، شماره مسلسل (19717)، شماره ثبت 950. https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16826.1743
- مالکی، محمدرضا؛ فروزان فر، محمد مهدی؛ و حسینعلی زاده، رامین، (1402). ناپایداری صندوق های بازنشستگی (۲): سلسله گزارش‌های پویایی شناسی چالش های کشور(e19283). ماهنامه گزارش‌های کارشناسی مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی، 31 (8)، e19283.  https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2024.1403.32.7.20073
- مردی، محمدحسین؛ سوری، علی؛ و اصفهانیان، هما، (1404). اثر تسویه بدهی دولت بر پایداری مالی سازمان تأمین اجتماعی و متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی در یک مدلDSGE. فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 14 (56)، 243-203. https://doi.org/10.22084/aes.2025.30172.3741
- مکری، فرانک؛ زندی، فاطمه؛ حسینی، سید شمس­الدین؛ و خضری، محمد، (1400). بکارگیری مدل غیرخطی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم (STR) در تعیین ارتباط متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی با بار مالی صندوق­های بازنشستگی برای دولت. فصلنامه پژوهش­ها وسیاست­های اقتصادی، ۲۹ (۹۸)، 477-447. https://qjerp.ir/article-1-2960-fa.html.
- منظور، داود؛ و تقی پور، انوشیروان، (1394). تنظیم یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE) برای اقتصاد باز کوچک صادرکننده نفت: مورد مطالعه ایران. فصلنامه پژوهش‌ها و سیاست‌های اقتصادی، ۲۳ (۷۵)، 44-7. http://qjerp.ir/article-1-1156-en.pdf
- نجفی، حسن؛ دامن کشیده، مرجان؛ محمدی، تیمور؛ شجاعی، معصومه؛ و دقیقی اصل، علیرضا، (1400). بررسی تأثیر شوک متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر تاب‌آوری صندوق‌های بازنشستگی ( مطالعه موردی سازمان تأمین اجتماعی). نشریه اقتصاد و بانکداری اسلامی، ۱۰ (۳۶)، ۳۸۳-۴۱۴. http://mieaoi.ir/article-1-1138-en.pdf.
- نیازی محسنی، محسن؛ شهرستانی، حمید؛ هژبرکیانی، کامبیز؛ و غفاری، فرهاد، (1399). بررسی اثر شوک‌های سیاست پولی و درآمدهای نفتی بر تورم و رشد اقتصادی در ایران. اقتصاد پولی مالی، 27 (19)، 46-29. https://doi.org/10.22067/pm.v27i19.85109.
- یزدانی، عباس، (1403). بررسی بخش دوم لایحه بودجه سال 1404 کل کشور(4): (بخش صندوق‌های بازنشستگی). دفتر مطالعات بخش عمومی (گروه اقتصاد رفاه و تأمین اجتماعی) مرکز پژوهش های مجلس، شماره مسلسل (20405). https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1403.32.11.20408
 
References
- Abolhassani Hastiani, A., Mehrara, M.  & Khajeh Mohammadlou, A., (2024). Monetary Policy-Maker Reaction Function in Oil Exporting Countries: STR Econometric Approach. Journal of Development and Capital, 9(1), 1-29. https://doi.org/10.22103/jdc.2023.20626.1322. (In Persian).
- Adabi Firouzjaee, B. & Gholami, A., (2024). Investigating the effect of global prices on the dynamics of Iran's economy with an emphasis on food inflation in the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The Journal of Economic Policy, 16(31), 187-231. https://doi.org/10.22034/epj.2024.20260.2449. (In Persian).
- Adabi Firouzjaee, B. & Hosseini, S.S., (2024). Identifying and Prioritizing Potential Approaches towards Reforming the Armed Forces’ Pension System. Defense Economics and Sustainable Development, 9(31), 9-34. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.25382454.1403.9.31.1.5.(In Persian).
- Adabi Firouzjaee, B., Gholami, A. & Salimi, E., (2024). The asymmetric effects of economic policies on the housing sector using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. new economy and trade, 19(63), 29-68. https://doi.org/10.30465/jnet.2024.48081.2122. (In Persian).
- Agénor, P. R., & Montiel, P. J., (2015). Development macroeconomics. Princeton University press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400866267.
- Asafo-Adjei, E., Agyapong, D., & Agyemang, I. O., (2023). Pension funds and economic growth: The role of institutional quality. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 2172809. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2172809.
- Bashiri, S., Pahlavani, M., & Boostani, R., (2017). Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles: A DSGE Model for the Iranian Economy. Iranian Economic Review, 21 (4). 969-1002. https://doi.org/10.22059/ier.2017.64105.
- Bayar, Y., & Kilic, M., (2019). Pension funds and stock market development: Evidence from OECD countries. International Journal of Sustainable Economy, 11(3), 273-285. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSE.2019.100672.
- Bijlsma, M., Bonekamp, J., van Ewijk, C., & Haaijen, F., (2018). Funded pensions and economic growth. De Economist, 166(3), 337-362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10645-018-9325-z.
- Brooks, S. P., & Gelman, A., (1998). General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 7(4), 434-455. https://doi.org/10.1080/10618600.1998.10474787.
- Cecchetti, S. G., King, M., & Yetman, J., (2011). Weathering the financial crisis: Good policy or good luck?. BIS working paper, no. 351). https://www.bis.org/publ/work351.htm.
- Chenarani, H., Yavari, K., Heydari, H. & Sharifzadeh, M., (2023). The Effect of Banking Crises on Macroeconomic Variables Within the Dsge Models Framework. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 12(46), 9-38. https://doi.org/10.22084/aes.2021.25066.3359. (In Persian).
- Davis, E. P., & Steil, B., (2004). Institutional investors. London: MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/3809.001.0001.
- Dixit, A. K., & Stiglitz, J. E., (1977). Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity. The American Economic Review, 67(3), 297-308. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1831401.
- Fernández-Villaverde, J., (2010). Fiscal policy in a model with financial frictions. American Economic Review, 100(2), 35-40. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.35.
- Galí, J., (2015). Monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle: an introduction to the new Keynesian framework and its applications. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400866007.
- Galí, J., (2018). The state of New Keynesian economics: a partial assessment. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(3), 87-112. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.3.87.
- Gali, J., & Monacelli, T., (2005). Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy. The Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 707-734. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00349.x.
- Gelman, A., & Rubin, D. B., (1992). Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences. Statistical Science, 7(4), 457-472. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177011136.
- Ghanbarzadeh, M., Hozarmoghadam, N., & Hamzeh, A., (2024). Evaluation of‎ e‎ conomic variables on pension fund performance of selected countries. Journal of Mathematics and Modeling in Finance, 4(1), 115-125. https://doi.org/10.22054/jmmf.2024.79648.1134.
- Ghasemi Siani., (2025). Review of the Performance of Investments by the Social Security Organization. Reports, 33(1), e20620. https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1404.33.1.20620. (In Persian).
- Heer, B., Polito, V., & Wickens, M. R., (2020). Population aging, social security and fiscal limits. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 116, 103913. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103913.
- Heidarpour, A., Pahlavani, M., Tash, M. S., & Tayebi, S., (2015). A New Keynesian Framework for Monetary Policy Analysis in Iran's Economy. A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach. Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, 2, (12)), 97-116. https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v6.2(12).01.
- Heijdra, B. J., & Romp, W. E., (2009). Retirement, pensions, and ageing. Journal of Public Economics, 93(3-4), 586-604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2008.10.009.
- Hosseini, S. S., Jafari Samimi, A., Tavakolian, H., & Ghobadi, N., (2022). How Does Monetary Policy Affect Household Income Distribution? Journal of Money and Economy, 17(1), 1-24. http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-556-en.html.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2018). Global Financial Stability Report: A Bumpy Road Ahead. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484338292.082.
- Jafari Samimi, A., Khiabani, N., Mila Elmi, Z., & Akbarpour Roshan, N., (2017). The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Variables: New Evidence from a DSGE Model. International Journal of Business and Development Studies, 9(2), 29-54. https://doi.org/10.22111/ijbds.2017.3703.
- Khan, S., Li, B., & Zhao, Y., (2025). Pension Reform and Stock Market Development. IMF Working Paper.
- Kiani, M., (2024). Review of the Second Part of the 1403 National Budget Bill (2): Budget of Executive Bodies. (e19718). Reports, 32(2), e19718. https://doi.org/10.22034/report.2024.16826.1743. (In Persian).
- King, R. G., Plosser, C. I., & Rebelo, S. T., (1988). Production, growth and business cycles: I. The basic neoclassical model. Journal of monetary Economics, 21(2-3), 195-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90030-X.
- Kolodiziev, O. M., Telnova, H., Krupka, I., Kulchytskyy, M., & Sochynska-Sybirtseva, I., (2021). Pension assets as an investment in economic growth: The case of post socialist countries and Ukraine. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 18(3), 166-174. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(3).2021.15.
- Kydland, F. E., & Prescott, E. C., (1982). Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1345-1370. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913386.
- Maleki, M. R., Forouzanfar, M.M., & Hosseinalizadeh, R. (2023). Instability of Pension Funds (2): A Series of System Dynamics Reports on the Country's Challenges. (e19283).  Reports, 31(8),19283  doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2024.1403.32.7.20073. (In Persian).
- Mangla, N., & Indapurkar, K., (2023). Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Performance of Pension Funds: An Econometric Analysis. In Proceedings of the 1st Pamir Transboundary Conference for Sustainable Societies - Volume 1: PAMIR (pp. 739-748). SciTePress. https://doi.org/10.5220/0012502800003792.
- Manzoor D, Taghipour A., (2016). A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for an oil exporting and small open economy: the case of Iran. Quarterly journal of economic research policy; 23 (75) :7-44. http://qjerp.ir/article-1-1156-en.pdf (In Persian).
- Mardi, M. H., Souri, A. and Esfahanian, H., (2026). Impact of Government Debt Settlement on the Financial Sustainability of the Social Security Organization and Macroeconomic Variables in a DSGE Model. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 14(56), 203-243. https://doi.org/10.22084/aes.2025.30172.3741. (In Persian).
- Mokri, F., Zandi, F., Hosseini, S. S., & Khezri, M., (2021). Applying the nonlinear mild transition regression (STR) model in determining the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial burden of pension funds for the government. Quarterly journal of economic research policy; 29 (98) :447-477. https://qjerp.ir/article-1-2960-fa.html. (In Persian).
- Montiel, P. J., (2009). International macroeconomics. John Wiley & Sons. ISBN: 978-1-405-18386-4.
- Morina, F., & Grima, S., (2022). The impact of pension fund assets on economic growth in transition countries, emerging economies, and developed countries. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 6(3), 459-504. https://doi.org/10.3934/QFE.2022020.
- Nagafi, H., (2021). Investigating the effect of shock of macroeconomic variables on the resilience of pension funds (Case study of the Social Security Organization). Islamic Economics and Banking, 10(36), 383-414. http://mieaoi.ir/article-1-1138-en.pdf. (In Persian).
- Najafi, H., Damankeshideh, M., Mohammadi, T., Shojaee, M., & Daghighiasli, A., (2022). Fluctuations in macroeconomic variables on the funding of pension funds in Iran (combined data pattern method with different frequency (MIDAS)). International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications, 13(2), 31-43.
- Niazimohseni, M., Shahrestani, H., Hojabr Kiani, K. and Ghafari, F., (2020). Examination of the Effect of the Shock Caused by Monetary Policy and Oil Revenue on Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran. Monetary & Financial Economics, 27(19), 29-46. https://doi.org/10.22067/pm.v27i19.85109. (In Persian).
- Rees, J. M. R., Abdoli, G., Nasiri, A. A., & Amiri, H., (2021). Investigating the effects of demographic change on the financial sustainability of the pension fund using the Overlapping Generation Model based on the DSGE model. Quarterly journal of economic research policy, 28 (96) :121-162. https://doi.org/10.22075/ijnaa.2021.23252.2589. (In Persian).
- Rezazadeh, H., Sargolzaei, M. and Peymany Foroushany, M., (2024). Effect of Structural Reforms of Pension System on the Economy and Capital Market of Iran Based on Overlapping Generations Model. Journal of Investment Knowledge, 13(52), 447-468. https://doi.org/10.30495/jik.2024.23165. (In Persian).
- Samsami mazrae akhoond H., Bakhtiyari, A., (2022). Investigating the effects of financing the public sector budget deficit from the banking system: Evidence from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE). Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 13(49), 112-152.  http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2306-en.html (In Persian).
- Sani, A. B., Sani, I., & Hassan, A., (2022). Modelling the effect of macro-economic variables on pension contribution in Nigeria. Archives of Current Research International, 22(2), 23-33. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/haljournl/hal-05205798.htm.
- Sanusi, K. A., & Kapingura, F. M., (2021). Pension funds as fuel for overall investment level and economic growth: An empirical insight from South African economy. Cogent Business & Management, 8(1), 1935661. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2021.1935661.
- Sass, S. A., (2018). Will the financial fragility of retirees increase? Retirement Management Journal, 7(1), 41-45. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3391334.
- Shaheed, A., Rafat, M., Sameti, M., & Salam, N., (2025). Fiscal Shocks and Central Bank Responses in Iran: A Bayesian DSGE Model with Non-Ricardian Households in an Open Economy. Journal of Money and Economy, 20(2), 149-193. http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-725-en.html.
- Shahini, j. and Izadbaksh, H., (2024). Series of Systemic Analysis and Simulation Reports (1): Ways to Enhance the Sustainability of Pension Funds. Reports, 32(7), e20073. https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2024.1403.32.7.20073. (In Persian).
- Shokri, N, Assari Arani, A, Asgary, A, Mozayani, A and Akbari, N., (2022). Simulation and Application of Parametric Corrections to Improve the Financial Misalignment of the Iranian Pension System. Economic Research and Perspectives, 22(4), 41-67. https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-60324-en.html (In Persian).
- Smets, F., & Wouters, R., (2007). Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach. American economic review, 97(3), 586-606. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.97.3.586,
- Tavakolian, H., (2015). Optimal, Discretionary and Rule-based Monetary policy in Achieving 5-year Development Plans Inflation Target: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach. Journal of Monetary and Banking Research, 8(23), 1-38. http://jmbr.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-225-en.html. (In Persian).
- Taylor, C. (1993). To follow a rule. Bourdieu: critical perspectives, 6, 45-60.
- Temsumrit, N., (2023). Population aging, pension systems, and economic growth: applying an overlapping generations model to the informal sector. Asian Development Review, 40(02), 305-341. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0116110523500154.
- Thomas, A., & Spataro, L. (2016). The effects of pension funds on markets performance: A review. Journal of Economic Surveys, 30(1), 1-33. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12085.
- Tudor, C., Girlovan, A., Saiu, G. R., & Guse, D. D., (2025). Asymmetric Shocks and Pension Fund Volatility: A GARCH Approach with Macroeconomic Predictors to an Unexplored Emerging Market. Mathematics, 13(7), 1134. https://doi.org/10.3390/math13071134.
- Woodford, M., & Walsh, C. E., (2005). Interest and prices: Foundations of a theory of monetary policy. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 9(3), 462-468. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400830169.
- World Bank., (2022). Iran Economic Monitor: Managing Economic Uncertainties (With a Special Focus: Preparing for an Uncertain Water Future). World Bank Group. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/publication/iran-economic-monitor-spring-2022.
- Wurgler, J., (2000). Financial markets and the allocation of capital. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1), 187–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-405x(00)00070-2.
- Yazdani, A., (2025). Examination of Section Two of the Budget Bill for the Year 1404 (1): An Analysis of Budget Expenditures (First Edition). Reports, 32(11),e20408. https://doi.org/10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1403.32.11.20408. (In Persian).
Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran
Volume 15, Issue 58
Summer 2026
Pages 75-116