پیوندهای واقعی-خزانه‌ایِ جانب درآمدهای خزانه‌ای در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران (نویسندۀ مسئول).

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی، تهران، ایران.

10.22084/aes.2025.30124.3736

چکیده

این پژوهش، با هدف تبیین پیوندهای واقعی-خزانه‌ای، به شناسایی تعیین‌کننده‌های کلان اقتصادی جانب درآمدهای خزانه‌ای دولت در ایران می‌پردازد. برای این‌منظور، از روش حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا (DOLS) طی سال‌های 1972 تا 2020م. (1351-1399) استفاده شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که تورم، تمرکزگرایی، انحراف قیمت‌های عمومی از قیمت‌های بازاری و تمرکز مالیات‌‎ستانی بر مالیات از درآمد نیروی کار، اثر مثبت بر جانب درآمدهای خزانه‌ای دولت در ایران داشته و خلاف‌آمد آن، رشد اقتصادی و باز بودن تجاری اثر منفی بر درآمدهای خزانه‌ای داشته است؛ به‌طور کلی، این یافته‌ها در حمایت از ایده پیاده‌سازی یک استراتژی رشد اقتصادی است که در درون سیستم مالیاتی فراگیر و بیرون از آن (یعنی به لحاظ اقتصاد رشد) منسجم باشد، و حاکمیت (دولت) به آن «پای‌بندی سخت» داشته باشد. بدین‌معنا که این استراتژی در درون فراگیر باشد؛ یعنی یک سیستم مالیات‌ستانی تصاعدی بالغ استقرار یابد و در آن، مالیات بر درآمد فراگیر تعدیل‌شده با تورم و شاخص‌سازی کامل به‌طور صریح و خودکار انجام شود. هم‌چنین، در بیرون منسجم باشد؛ بدین‌معنا که در بُعدهای باز بودن، تمرکززدایی تصمیم‌گیری‌های کلان-خزانه‌ای، و تنظیم اندازۀ کارآی دولت نیز در هماهنگی با سیستم مالیاتی فراگیر در راستای تشویق رشد اقتصادی طراحی شود. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Real-Fiscal Linkages of Fiscal Revenue-side in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Samira Ejtehadi 1
  • Hashem Zare 2
  • Mehrzad Ebrahimi 3
  • Mohammad Ali Aboutorabi 4
1 PhD Student Economics, Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran (Corresponding Author).
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.
4 Assistant Researcher, Department of Economics, Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

This paper aims to explain the real-fiscal linkages by identifying the macroeconomic determinants of government revenue in Iran. To achieve this, the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) method was applied using data from 1972 to 2020. The findings indicate that inflation, centralization, the divergence of public prices from market prices, and the concentration of tax collection on labor income tax all have positive effects on government revenue in Iran. In contrast, economic growth and trade openness have negative effects on government revenue. Overall, these findings support implementing an economic growth strategy that is internally comprehensive within the tax system and externally coherent in terms of the economics of growth, and to which the government has a “tight commitment”. “Internally comprehensive” refers to establishing a mature progressive tax system that includes an inflation-adjusted comprehensive income tax along with automatic complete indexation. When complete and explicit automatic indexation is lacking, fiscal authorities may still benefit from inflation, which can lead to persistent political incentives for inflation inertia. “Externally coherent” refers to ensuring that aspects such as openness, decentralization of macro-fiscal decision-making, and the efficient size of government align with the comprehensive tax system to promote economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Taxation
  • Real-Fiscal linkages
  • Inflation
  • Growth
  • Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS)

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فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
دوره 14، شماره 53
خرداد 1404
صفحه 79-109

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