Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1
MSc, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran (Corresponding Author).
10.22084/aes.2025.30475.3762
Abstract
Abstract: Iran’s economic dependence on oil has made the country vulnerable to oil price fluctuations, and developing non-oil exports can help reduce these risks. The raisin industry, as one of the country’s export capacities, has consolidated Iran’s position in the fifth place in the world with an annual export of 63,000 tons. This industry can play a key role in increasing employment, GDP, and non-oil revenues. However, in recent years, the share of Iranian raisins in global markets has decreased, and Malayer, known as the global city of grapes and raisins, is no exception to this downward trend. Farmers and activists in the raisin supply chain face numerous risks in the stages of production, processing, packaging, and distribution. This research has identified the most important critical factors by identifying and classifying risks in five main areas (before grape production, during production, processing and packaging, marketing and sales in domestic and foreign markets) and conducting interviews with experts. Then, using the Failure Mode Analysis (FMEA) method, the indicators of probability of occurrence, severity of effect, and ability to face risks were evaluated and ranked by determining the Risk Point Number (RPN). The results show that risks such as weak infrastructure, inefficient contract management, and market fluctuations have significant negative effects on supply chain performance. To improve the conditions, suggestions such as infrastructure development, process standardization, regulatory clarification, and operator training have been presented. These measures can increase productivity, competitiveness in international markets, and economic added value of this industry and contribute to economic stability and sustainable development.
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