بررسی تاثیر سیاست تسهیل اعتباری بر متغیرهای کلان دراقتصاد ایران

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

2 دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

3 پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی

10.22084/aes.2018.16662.2673

چکیده

در پی بحران مالی جهانی، بسیاری از کشورها از سیاست های تسهیل اعتباری برای خروج از رکود استفاده کردند. هدف اصلی این مقاله بررسی اثر اعمال سیاست تسهیل اعتباری بر متغیرهای کلان در اقتصاد ایران است. در این پژوهش از مدل VARو داده های فصلی برای سال های 95-1384 استفاده شده است. در مرحله نخست به کمک آزمون ریشه واحد هگی مانایی متغیرها مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و سپس با تحلیل مدل VAR متغیرهای کنش و واکنش آنی در بازه مورد بررسی برآورد شده است. نتایج نشان دهنده تاثیر مثبت و معنی دار تسهیل اعتباری به میزان 0.001 درصد بر رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی کشور و بر نرخ سرمایه گذاری بخش خصوصی معادل 0.07 درصد و بر صادرات غیرنفتی معادل 0.12 درصد است و این اثر سبب کاهش نرخ بیکاری معادل 0.0025 درصد و همچنین نرخ ارز واقعی را به میزان 0.02 درصد کاهش داده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Credit Easing Policy on Macroeconomic Variables in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • hadiseh mohsani 1
  • mosayeb pahlavani 2
  • mohammad nabi shahiki tash 2
  • hosein mirjalili 3
1 usb
2 university of sistan and baluchestan
3 Institute of Humanities and Cultural Studies
چکیده [English]

Abstract
The main objective of the paper is to investigate the effect of implementing credit policy on macroeconomic variables in Iran's economy. We estimated the VAR model with seasonal data for the years 1384-1395. In the first place, the unit root test for the time series variables were examined and then, by analyzing the VAR model, we estimated the impulse-response variables. The results indicate a positive and significant positive effect of credit easing by 0.001 per cent on GDP growth rate and by 0.07 per cent on the private investment rate and by 0.12 per cent on non-oil exports. These effects will reduce the unemployment rate by 0.0025 per cent. It also decreases the real exchange rate by 0.02%.
Introduction
Since the global financial crisis in 2007, monetary policy has been limited to a lower bound for nominal interest rates. For the inability to lower interest rates, Central bank Governors have resorted to unconventional monetary policy instruments such as credit easing. (Ellison & Tishbick, 2014: 203). For recovery, central banks made credit easier. By definition, an unconventional monetary policy is a policy which its implementation doesn’t involve with a change in nominal interest rates (Shadi, 2017: 53). This unconventional policy includes a number of balance sheet policies in which the central bank purchase assets (e.g, quantitative easing) or easing credit and access to central bank credit with lower interest rates. In fact, credit easing and quantitative easing are both unconventional monetary policies. Although both contribute to the expansion of the Central Bank's balance sheet, credit easing requires the expansion and focus on the assets side of the balance sheet, but quantitative easing focus on the liability side of the central bank’s balance sheet. Unconventional monetary instruments have been used rarely before the financial crisis. 
Literature review
Monetary and financial markets are of particular importance in the financial system of the countries, and for sustainable development. It is also important for achieving economic development. In fact, financial and monetary markets are sources of funding for various economic activities. Financing of productive enterprises, for working capital or the development of activities and new investments, is an important issue for a financial system. Credits can provide inputs such as labor, capital, technology, as well as raw materials. Therefore, getting credit has special importance for the development of investment and Production activities. (Tayebi and Abasloo, 2009: 64). 
Conclusion
The results also indicate that the Impact of credit easing shock will increase GDP growth rate by 0.001% and private investment by 0.07% and also, with the depreciation of real exchange rate by 0.02% will increase non-oil exports by 0.12%. Therefore, the most impact of credit easing would be on non-oil exports. Therefore, credit easing is a stimulus for economic activity. The results provided evidence supporting the impact of central bank's credit Easing on the exchange rate. Therefore, any impact on economic activity are likely to occur through channels of monetary policy mechanism which may include the effects of commitment, expectations, or loss of liquidity, relative to exchange rate channel. Finally, the results differentiated various mechanisms of the transfer of credit policy in assessing the policy actions of the central bank on economic activities. This paper is a first step in assessing the effectiveness of credit easing policy in the context of unconventional monetary policy. The effectiveness of different channels of the transfer of credit easing, especially through the purchase of private assets, can be identified appropriately, as the importance of real sector and investment promotion leads to economic stability.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Easing Policy
  • Economic Recession
  • VAR Model
  • Macro Variables
  • Iranian Economy