bu ali sina university Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran 2322-2530 15 57 2026 05 22 Dynamic Modeling of the Impact of Water and Energy Subsidy Reforms in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Water Transfer Project on Exports and Added Value of Iran’s Economic Sectors with an Environmental Sustainability Approach: Horizon 2046 Dynamic Modeling of the Impact of Water and Energy Subsidy Reforms in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Water Transfer Project on Exports and Added Value of Iran’s Economic Sectors with an Environmental Sustainability Approach: Horizon 2046 9 41 6626 10.22084/aes.2025.31361.3814 FA Nadia Anjomshoa PhD student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. 0000-0002-7944-8267 Seyed AbdulMajid Jalaei Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran (Corresponding Author). 0000-0001-8154-9123 Mehdi Nejati Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. 0000-0003-4103-869X Journal Article 2025 07 30 Given the increasing challenges of water scarcity in the central plateau and eastern regions of Iran, this research aims to dynamically model the impact of water and energy subsidy reforms in the Persian Gulf water transfer project on the export and added value of Iran’s economic sectors, with an environmental sustainability approach, up to the horizon of 2046. The research utilizes Vensim software to simulate three scenarios of water and electricity subsidy reforms. The results indicate that, in the short term, subsidy reforms lead to a decrease in added value in the agricultural, industrial, and mining sectors. However, in the medium and long terms, these changes can result in increased productivity, resource reallocation, and changes in the production structure, ultimately strengthening exports and improving Iran’s trade position. The 2046 vision document specifically addresses the sustainable development of water resources and optimal energy management, with one of the proposed solutions in the country’s development programs being the reform of water and energy subsidies to preserve natural resources and enhance productivity. This research emphasizes that the reform of water and energy pricing policies, along with environmental considerations and integrated resource management, is a prerequisite for achieving economic and commercial sustainability by 2046. Ultimately, the research shows that to achieve the country’s long-term development goals, subsidy reforms and optimal resource allocation must be carried out simultaneously, considering environmental dimensions, to manage the economic and commercial impacts of large-scale water transfer projects effectively. Given the increasing challenges of water scarcity in the central plateau and eastern regions of Iran, this research aims to dynamically model the impact of water and energy subsidy reforms in the Persian Gulf water transfer project on the export and added value of Iran’s economic sectors, with an environmental sustainability approach, up to the horizon of 2046. The research utilizes Vensim software to simulate three scenarios of water and electricity subsidy reforms. The results indicate that, in the short term, subsidy reforms lead to a decrease in added value in the agricultural, industrial, and mining sectors. However, in the medium and long terms, these changes can result in increased productivity, resource reallocation, and changes in the production structure, ultimately strengthening exports and improving Iran’s trade position. The 2046 vision document specifically addresses the sustainable development of water resources and optimal energy management, with one of the proposed solutions in the country’s development programs being the reform of water and energy subsidies to preserve natural resources and enhance productivity. This research emphasizes that the reform of water and energy pricing policies, along with environmental considerations and integrated resource management, is a prerequisite for achieving economic and commercial sustainability by 2046. Ultimately, the research shows that to achieve the country’s long-term development goals, subsidy reforms and optimal resource allocation must be carried out simultaneously, considering environmental dimensions, to manage the economic and commercial impacts of large-scale water transfer projects effectively. Dynamic systems water transfer Energy Economics Environmental Sustainability https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_6626_3483e5ec0489e5c394b028ec4e81f3e1.pdf
bu ali sina university Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran 2322-2530 15 57 2026 05 22 The Impact of Income Tax and Capital Tax Shocks on Household Welfare in Iran: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach The Impact of Income Tax and Capital Tax Shocks on Household Welfare in Iran: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach 43 76 6627 10.22084/aes.2025.30487.3763 FA Mostafa Lotfi Parsa PhD Student Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran. 0009-0007-3607-6639 Seyed Ehsan Hosseinidoust Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran (Corresponding Author). 0000-0001-7199-8734 Mohammad Hassan Fotros Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran. Reza Maaboudi Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran 0000-0003-4273-5200 Journal Article 2025 02 02 Tax is one of the important economic variables that affects the economic well-being of households through its impact on consumption, investment, income distribution, and the quality and quantity of public services. Historically, due to the existence of oil revenues, the government has relied less on tax revenues. However, especially in recent years, for various reasons, including sanctions, the majority of government spending is financed by taxes. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the effect of paying taxes on household welfare. Given the importance of the issue, the present study uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach to examine the impact of government tax revenue shocks (including direct taxes) on the economic well-being of Iranian households in the period 1971-2023. The findings show that shocks in the formal income tax and profit tax lead to a decrease in the economic well-being of households. However, the effect of income tax on the reduction of household economic well-being is greater than that of profit tax. Imposing a profit tax reduces profitability and reduces the ability of companies to make productive investments. Reducing productive investment through reduced employment and economic growth reduces the economic well-being of households. However, taxing income leads to increased production costs. With the increase in production costs, on the one hand, the production of goods and services and employment decrease, which results in a decrease in household welfare. On the other hand, increasing production costs causes firms to transfer part of the tax burden to consumers by increasing the price of goods and services in order to compensate for lost profits, which is accompanied by a further decrease in the quality of life and household welfare. Therefore, since the results of the study show that income tax will reduce household welfare more severely than profit tax, it is recommended that the income tax rate be reduced and profit tax be increased, and the government, while increasing the efficiency of tax collection, should allocate a greater share of resources from tax collection to productive activities, improve the country’s educational and health infrastructure, and regularly evaluate the effectiveness of welfare programs, thereby improving the quality of life of households. Tax is one of the important economic variables that affects the economic well-being of households through its impact on consumption, investment, income distribution, and the quality and quantity of public services. Historically, due to the existence of oil revenues, the government has relied less on tax revenues. However, especially in recent years, for various reasons, including sanctions, the majority of government spending is financed by taxes. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the effect of paying taxes on household welfare. Given the importance of the issue, the present study uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach to examine the impact of government tax revenue shocks (including direct taxes) on the economic well-being of Iranian households in the period 1971-2023. The findings show that shocks in the formal income tax and profit tax lead to a decrease in the economic well-being of households. However, the effect of income tax on the reduction of household economic well-being is greater than that of profit tax. Imposing a profit tax reduces profitability and reduces the ability of companies to make productive investments. Reducing productive investment through reduced employment and economic growth reduces the economic well-being of households. However, taxing income leads to increased production costs. With the increase in production costs, on the one hand, the production of goods and services and employment decrease, which results in a decrease in household welfare. On the other hand, increasing production costs causes firms to transfer part of the tax burden to consumers by increasing the price of goods and services in order to compensate for lost profits, which is accompanied by a further decrease in the quality of life and household welfare. Therefore, since the results of the study show that income tax will reduce household welfare more severely than profit tax, it is recommended that the income tax rate be reduced and profit tax be increased, and the government, while increasing the efficiency of tax collection, should allocate a greater share of resources from tax collection to productive activities, improve the country’s educational and health infrastructure, and regularly evaluate the effectiveness of welfare programs, thereby improving the quality of life of households. Welfare Government Tax Revenue Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach Iranian Economy https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_6627_0224cd598e48c5041c7947fd5cb20d53.pdf
bu ali sina university Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran 2322-2530 15 57 2026 05 22 Optimal Monetary Policy Analysis Under Exchange‑Rate Shocks: Reframing Inflation, Output, and Exchange‑Rate Stability Objectives within a DSGE Framework Optimal Monetary Policy Analysis Under Exchange‑Rate Shocks: Reframing Inflation, Output, and Exchange‑Rate Stability Objectives within a DSGE Framework 77 113 6513 10.22084/aes.2026.31635.3836 FA Hassan Naraghi PhD Candidate Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran. 0009-0005-8863-7886 Ahmad Sarlak Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran (Corresponding Author). 0000-0001-7237-2880 Seyed Fakhreddin Fakhrhosseini Associate Professor, Department of Financial Management, Faculty of Management, Ka.C., Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran. 0000-0001-5955-1913 Maryam Sharifnezhad Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran. 0000-0002-7199-2946 Journal Article 2025 09 28 This study examines monetary policy responses to exchange rate fluctuations in the Iranian economy, with a focus on the optimal design of policy under macroeconomic shocks. A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is developed and calibrated to capture Iran’s economic structure, institutional features, and behavioral patterns. The model describes interactions among households, firms, the public sector, and the monetary authority within an open-economy framework and incorporates multiple domestic and external shock sources. Using quarterly data from 2006Q1 to 2023Q4, the dynamic responses of key macroeconomic variables to structural shocks—such as productivity, exchange rate, and liquidity shocks—are analyzed through simulation methods. The results show that these shocks exert significant effects on output, inflation, and asset prices through various transmission channels. From a policy perspective, the findings suggest that placing a greater weight on inflation stabilization in the monetary policy rule helps reduce the spillover effects of shocks on real activity and financial markets, though it increases interest rate volatility. Overall, the results highlight the importance of balancing inflation control and output stabilization in an oil-dependent economy exposed to substantial exchange rate fluctuations. This study examines monetary policy responses to exchange rate fluctuations in the Iranian economy, with a focus on the optimal design of policy under macroeconomic shocks. A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is developed and calibrated to capture Iran’s economic structure, institutional features, and behavioral patterns. The model describes interactions among households, firms, the public sector, and the monetary authority within an open-economy framework and incorporates multiple domestic and external shock sources. Using quarterly data from 2006Q1 to 2023Q4, the dynamic responses of key macroeconomic variables to structural shocks—such as productivity, exchange rate, and liquidity shocks—are analyzed through simulation methods. The results show that these shocks exert significant effects on output, inflation, and asset prices through various transmission channels. From a policy perspective, the findings suggest that placing a greater weight on inflation stabilization in the monetary policy rule helps reduce the spillover effects of shocks on real activity and financial markets, though it increases interest rate volatility. Overall, the results highlight the importance of balancing inflation control and output stabilization in an oil-dependent economy exposed to substantial exchange rate fluctuations. optimal monetary policy Exchange Rate Shocks DSGE Model inflation Output Gap https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_6513_3bff829dde3583558708865f6de7be37.pdf
bu ali sina university Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran 2322-2530 15 57 2026 05 22 The Effect of the Urban Family Physician Program on Out-of-Pocket Health Spending in Iran: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Difference-in-Differences Analysis The Effect of the Urban Family Physician Program on Out-of-Pocket Health Spending in Iran: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Difference-in-Differences Analysis 115 145 6621 10.22084/aes.2025.31507.3827 FA Behnaz Mehrjoo Ph.D. Candidate in Health Economics, Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University,Tehran, Iran. 0009-0000-7148-8152 Sajjad Faraji Dizaji Associate Professor, Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author). 0000-0001-8413-4580 Seyed Mohamad Karimi Associate Professor, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, USA. 0000-0002-3796-8141 Abbas Asari Arani Associate Professor, Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. 0000-0002-4995-867X Journal Article 2025 09 06 High out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures remain a major challenge in Iran’s health system, exposing households to catastrophic health spending and impoverishment. A key policy initiative to mitigate this financial burden has been the implementation of the Urban Family Physician Program (UFPP), launched as a pilot in the provinces of Fars and Mazandaran in 2012. Using household income and expenditure survey data and applying a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DID) approach, this study evaluates the program’s effect on urban households’ health expenditures. Fars province was designated as the intervention group, while several provinces with similar pre-intervention expenditure trends served as controls. To enhance estimation validity, control provinces were selected through a multi-stage process, and the parallel trends assumption was verified using visual inspections, placebo tests, and pre-intervention slope analyses. Results show that, after the implementation of the UFPP, average household OOP health spending in Fars was about 1.7 million rials lower (in 2014 constant prices) than in the control provinces. Additional results indicate that household income, education level of the household head, and demographic composition had meaningful effects on OOP expenditures. The findings suggest that the UFPP reduced the financial burden of healthcare and enhanced financial protection among urban households. However, sustaining these gains requires stable financing mechanisms and improvements in the quality of primary care services. High out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures remain a major challenge in Iran’s health system, exposing households to catastrophic health spending and impoverishment. A key policy initiative to mitigate this financial burden has been the implementation of the Urban Family Physician Program (UFPP), launched as a pilot in the provinces of Fars and Mazandaran in 2012. Using household income and expenditure survey data and applying a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DID) approach, this study evaluates the program’s effect on urban households’ health expenditures. Fars province was designated as the intervention group, while several provinces with similar pre-intervention expenditure trends served as controls. To enhance estimation validity, control provinces were selected through a multi-stage process, and the parallel trends assumption was verified using visual inspections, placebo tests, and pre-intervention slope analyses. Results show that, after the implementation of the UFPP, average household OOP health spending in Fars was about 1.7 million rials lower (in 2014 constant prices) than in the control provinces. Additional results indicate that household income, education level of the household head, and demographic composition had meaningful effects on OOP expenditures. The findings suggest that the UFPP reduced the financial burden of healthcare and enhanced financial protection among urban households. However, sustaining these gains requires stable financing mechanisms and improvements in the quality of primary care services. Urban Family Physician Program Out-of-Pocket Expenditures Difference-in-Differences https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_6621_d4df7b6239c425d8cc897411ef11abe7.pdf
bu ali sina university Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran 2322-2530 15 57 2026 05 22 The Impact of BRICS Plus Membership on Iran’s Economic Development Indicators (The GTAP Approach) The Impact of BRICS Plus Membership on Iran’s Economic Development Indicators (The GTAP Approach) 147 186 6628 10.22084/aes.2025.31534.3826 FA Arash Yavarifar Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Economics, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. 0009-0000-7848-2968 Ali Emami Meibodi Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author). 0000-0002-4823-4151 Teymoor Mohammadi Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. 0000-0001-9665-4778 Journal Article 2025 09 05 The BRICS Plus, encompassing about 45 percent of the world’s population, 26 percent of geographical area, 17 percent of global trade, and nearly 32 percent of world GDP based on purchasing power parity, holds a significant position in the international economy. Iran’s official membership in BRICS, as an emerging economic and geopolitical alliance, has the potential to exert meaningful and multidimensional effects on the country’s macroeconomic indicators. A review of previous studies shows that no independent research has yet been conducted on the implications of Iran’s accession to BRICS Plus. This study employs a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP, version 10) database to examine the impact of reciprocal tariff reductions between Iran and BRICS Plus members under gradual scenarios (10 to 100 percent). The analysis focuses on key variables such as GDP, household income, inflation, and overall welfare. The findings indicate that Iran’s integration into BRICS Plus and the reduction of trade tariffs can, while offsetting part of the losses caused by economic sanctions, lead to higher real GDP, improved household income, lower inflation, and enhanced welfare. Accordingly, it is recommended that policymakers, particularly in the industry and mining sectors, design short-term programs for trade liberalization with BRICS Plus members to take advantage of their industrial and technological capacities (especially those of China, India, and Russia). Such an approach could contribute to greater productivity in Iran’s industrial and mining sectors and foster growth in indicators such as exports, investment, employment, and value added. The BRICS Plus, encompassing about 45 percent of the world’s population, 26 percent of geographical area, 17 percent of global trade, and nearly 32 percent of world GDP based on purchasing power parity, holds a significant position in the international economy. Iran’s official membership in BRICS, as an emerging economic and geopolitical alliance, has the potential to exert meaningful and multidimensional effects on the country’s macroeconomic indicators. A review of previous studies shows that no independent research has yet been conducted on the implications of Iran’s accession to BRICS Plus. This study employs a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP, version 10) database to examine the impact of reciprocal tariff reductions between Iran and BRICS Plus members under gradual scenarios (10 to 100 percent). The analysis focuses on key variables such as GDP, household income, inflation, and overall welfare. The findings indicate that Iran’s integration into BRICS Plus and the reduction of trade tariffs can, while offsetting part of the losses caused by economic sanctions, lead to higher real GDP, improved household income, lower inflation, and enhanced welfare. Accordingly, it is recommended that policymakers, particularly in the industry and mining sectors, design short-term programs for trade liberalization with BRICS Plus members to take advantage of their industrial and technological capacities (especially those of China, India, and Russia). Such an approach could contribute to greater productivity in Iran’s industrial and mining sectors and foster growth in indicators such as exports, investment, employment, and value added. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Household Income General Welfare Trade Tariff Reduction Regional CGE Model Inflation rate https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_6628_1c336b8080f82bcc2cd2499b4c57261d.pdf
bu ali sina university Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran 2322-2530 15 57 2026 05 22 Dynamic Analysis of the Economic Effects of Wheat Pricing Policy in Iran: Application of Censored Quantile Autoregressive Method Dynamic Analysis of the Economic Effects of Wheat Pricing Policy in Iran: Application of Censored Quantile Autoregressive Method 187 209 6622 10.22084/aes.2025.31142.3805 FA Raheleh Shayeghan Ph.D. Student in Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. 0009-0004-8521-6595 Ebrahim Moradi Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran (Corresponding Author). 0000-0002-1408-1716 Journal Article 2025 06 16 this study investigates the dynamic effects of wheat price support policies in Iran, with a specific focus on their impact on market price fluctuations. The primary objective is to assess the effectiveness of guaranteed price policies in stabilizing wheat prices and their long-term consequences for the wheat market. Employing a Censored Quintile Autoregressive (CQAR) model and comprehensive wheat price data spanning 1989 to 2024 (1368-1403 Persian calendar), this research examines how support policies influence price distribution in both short and long terms. The study also utilizes Monte Carlo simulation techniques to evaluate different price support scenarios findings reveal that price support policies significantly mitigate price volatility, particularly in lower quintiles (0.1 and 0.3) of the price distribution, government interventions through guaranteed purchases and strategic reserves demonstrate dynamic effects: Short-term, Prevent sharp price declines. Long-term: Create downward pressure when releasing reserves. More aggressive support scenarios (e.g., 12% price supports) achieve greater stability but at significantly higher fiscal costs. While current policies have successfully stabilized Iran’s wheat market, the study recommends policy revisions to better balance agricultural support with fiscal sustainability. Critical recommendations include precision targeting of support measures toward vulnerable farmers, Cost-based pricing that reflects actual production expenses advanced monitoring systems to track domestic and international market dynamics. The research concludes that data-driven, adaptive price support mechanisms are essential for simultaneously achieving food security objectives and safeguarding farmer welfare. this study investigates the dynamic effects of wheat price support policies in Iran, with a specific focus on their impact on market price fluctuations. The primary objective is to assess the effectiveness of guaranteed price policies in stabilizing wheat prices and their long-term consequences for the wheat market. Employing a Censored Quintile Autoregressive (CQAR) model and comprehensive wheat price data spanning 1989 to 2024 (1368-1403 Persian calendar), this research examines how support policies influence price distribution in both short and long terms. The study also utilizes Monte Carlo simulation techniques to evaluate different price support scenarios findings reveal that price support policies significantly mitigate price volatility, particularly in lower quintiles (0.1 and 0.3) of the price distribution, government interventions through guaranteed purchases and strategic reserves demonstrate dynamic effects: Short-term, Prevent sharp price declines. Long-term: Create downward pressure when releasing reserves. More aggressive support scenarios (e.g., 12% price supports) achieve greater stability but at significantly higher fiscal costs. While current policies have successfully stabilized Iran’s wheat market, the study recommends policy revisions to better balance agricultural support with fiscal sustainability. Critical recommendations include precision targeting of support measures toward vulnerable farmers, Cost-based pricing that reflects actual production expenses advanced monitoring systems to track domestic and international market dynamics. The research concludes that data-driven, adaptive price support mechanisms are essential for simultaneously achieving food security objectives and safeguarding farmer welfare. Iran Agricultural price supports Wheat Market Quintile regression analysis Food security policy https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_6622_4d0505284ac5049b4167eb7ebfe0791b.pdf
bu ali sina university Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran 2322-2530 15 57 2026 05 22 Regional Market Regulation in Iran: A Conceptual and Operational Framework for Crisis Conditions Regional Market Regulation in Iran: A Conceptual and Operational Framework for Crisis Conditions 211 239 6479 10.22084/aes.2026.31601.3832 FA Alireza Garshasbi Associate Professor, Institute for Trade Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran. 0009-0004-3829-2413 Sadegh Fadashi Lecturer, Institute for Trade Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran. 0009-0001-8821-6281 Somayeh Nematollahi Assistant Professor, Institute for Trade Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author). 0009-0007-3896-9991 Journal Article 2025 09 21 Frequent disruptions in the supply of essential goods, intensified by economic sanctions and the recent 12-day regional war, have highlighted the structural fragility of Iran’s market regulation system and the need for more resilient governance arrangements. Despite extensive government intervention, the absence of an explicit and coherent model for regional market regulation remains a critical gap. This study addresses this deficiency by proposing a conceptual and operational framework that links national policymaking with regional and provincial capacities to improve both equity and efficiency in essential goods markets. The research adopts a three-phase methodological design. In the first phase, regional units were delineated using demographic, productive, and infrastructural indicators, drawing on domestic planning documents and relevant international experiences. In the second phase, key indicators related to supply capacity, demand conditions, storage, and distribution infrastructure were identified and weighted through expert consensus, employing the Delphi method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on inputs from nine specialists. In the third phase, a Composite Index (CI) was constructed to evaluate and rank alternative regionalization scenarios across four dimensions: productive and infrastructural balance, population homogeneity, spatial distribution of strong provinces, and managerial concentration. The results indicate that a five-region configuration provides the most effective balance among efficiency, equity, and administrative feasibility, outperforming both more centralized and more fragmented alternatives. This configuration enables clearer allocation of responsibilities and strengthens coordination among governance levels. Accordingly, the study advances a three-tier governance framework comprising national leadership and policy direction, regional coordination and decision-making, and provincial-level execution. By systematizing regional market regulation within a multi-level governance structure, this study contributes to the literature on crisis management and regulatory governance. Practically, the proposed model enhances the resilience of essential goods markets under both normal and crisis conditions and offers a scalable foundation for future, commodity-specific operationalization in Iran and other developing economies. Frequent disruptions in the supply of essential goods, intensified by economic sanctions and the recent 12-day regional war, have highlighted the structural fragility of Iran’s market regulation system and the need for more resilient governance arrangements. Despite extensive government intervention, the absence of an explicit and coherent model for regional market regulation remains a critical gap. This study addresses this deficiency by proposing a conceptual and operational framework that links national policymaking with regional and provincial capacities to improve both equity and efficiency in essential goods markets. The research adopts a three-phase methodological design. In the first phase, regional units were delineated using demographic, productive, and infrastructural indicators, drawing on domestic planning documents and relevant international experiences. In the second phase, key indicators related to supply capacity, demand conditions, storage, and distribution infrastructure were identified and weighted through expert consensus, employing the Delphi method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on inputs from nine specialists. In the third phase, a Composite Index (CI) was constructed to evaluate and rank alternative regionalization scenarios across four dimensions: productive and infrastructural balance, population homogeneity, spatial distribution of strong provinces, and managerial concentration. The results indicate that a five-region configuration provides the most effective balance among efficiency, equity, and administrative feasibility, outperforming both more centralized and more fragmented alternatives. This configuration enables clearer allocation of responsibilities and strengthens coordination among governance levels. Accordingly, the study advances a three-tier governance framework comprising national leadership and policy direction, regional coordination and decision-making, and provincial-level execution. By systematizing regional market regulation within a multi-level governance structure, this study contributes to the literature on crisis management and regulatory governance. Practically, the proposed model enhances the resilience of essential goods markets under both normal and crisis conditions and offers a scalable foundation for future, commodity-specific operationalization in Iran and other developing economies. Regional Market Regulation crisis management Multi-level governance Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_6479_0a716fe8c7745e51a3185fc8be6ca23a.pdf
bu ali sina university Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran 2322-2530 15 57 2026 05 22 Examining the Impact of the Closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the Volatility of Major Global Stock Market Indices Examining the Impact of the Closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the Volatility of Major Global Stock Market Indices 241 270 6623 10.22084/aes.2026.32474.3898 FA Aeyyed Abdollah Razavi Associate Professor, Department of Petroleum Economics and Energy Diplomacy, Faculty of Petroleum, University of Petroleum Industry, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author). 0000-0001-7253-7411 Samira Basirizadeh M.Sc., Department of Economics and Islamic Banking, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. 0009-0000-9873-8908 Journal Article 2026 04 21 The Strait of Hormuz, as one of the world’s most important geoeconomic corridors, plays a key role in energy transportation and in shaping expectations in international financial markets. This study examines the impact of a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz on the volatility of major global stock market indices as a severe geopolitical shock, since disruption in this vital energy trade chokepoint can lead to volatility spillovers in international financial markets. The main objective is to assess the resilience of the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices against a complete 40 day closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The research was conducted with a forward-looking, scenario-based approach, and daily data from financial and energy markets were collected for the period from January 12, 2025 to June 5, 2026. For the analysis, after applying the Augmented Dickey–Fuller, Zivot–Andrews, and Lagrange tests, a multivariate BEKK-GARCH model was employed, and a Hormuz dummy variable was introduced into the variance equation. The results indicate that the Hormuz blockage has the greatest effect on the S&P 500 index and has increased the short-term volatility of some indices by about 30 percent. Moreover, the correlation between the oil market and global stock markets intensified during the period of tension. In the scenario analysis, three possible situations were examined: in the de-escalation scenario, stabilization of oil prices in the range of 80 to 90 dollars could lead to improvement in risk assets; in the scenario of continued restrictions with oil around 100 to 110 dollars, market volatility increases; and in the scenario of the effective closure of the strait, a surge in oil prices to 150 to 180 dollars strengthens recessionary pressure and the tendency toward safe-haven assets. The results emphasize the necessity of risk-hedging strategies. The Strait of Hormuz, as one of the world’s most important geoeconomic corridors, plays a key role in energy transportation and in shaping expectations in international financial markets. This study examines the impact of a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz on the volatility of major global stock market indices as a severe geopolitical shock, since disruption in this vital energy trade chokepoint can lead to volatility spillovers in international financial markets. The main objective is to assess the resilience of the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices against a complete 40 day closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The research was conducted with a forward-looking, scenario-based approach, and daily data from financial and energy markets were collected for the period from January 12, 2025 to June 5, 2026. For the analysis, after applying the Augmented Dickey–Fuller, Zivot–Andrews, and Lagrange tests, a multivariate BEKK-GARCH model was employed, and a Hormuz dummy variable was introduced into the variance equation. The results indicate that the Hormuz blockage has the greatest effect on the S&P 500 index and has increased the short-term volatility of some indices by about 30 percent. Moreover, the correlation between the oil market and global stock markets intensified during the period of tension. In the scenario analysis, three possible situations were examined: in the de-escalation scenario, stabilization of oil prices in the range of 80 to 90 dollars could lead to improvement in risk assets; in the scenario of continued restrictions with oil around 100 to 110 dollars, market volatility increases; and in the scenario of the effective closure of the strait, a surge in oil prices to 150 to 180 dollars strengthens recessionary pressure and the tendency toward safe-haven assets. The results emphasize the necessity of risk-hedging strategies. Strait of Hormuz Global Indices stock market Multivariate GARCH Model https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_6623_80f4431bf838249179aa507f0bdd2cf3.pdf
bu ali sina university Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran 2322-2530 15 57 2026 05 22 Agent-Based Simulation of Housing Price Volatility: The Impact of Speculative Behavior on Housing Market Dynamics (Case Study: Shiraz city) Agent-Based Simulation of Housing Price Volatility: The Impact of Speculative Behavior on Housing Market Dynamics (Case Study: Shiraz city) 271 300 6447 10.22084/aes.2025.31402.3816 FA Sara Parang PhD Student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic, Shiraz Univercity, Shiraz, Iran. Zahra Dehghan Shabani Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic, Shiraz Univercity, Shiraz, Iran (Corresponding Author). 0000-0002-1019-4983 Journal Article 2025 08 10 One of the most important concerns of housing policymakers worldwide is the emergence of a price volatility. There are two types of demand, including consumption and speculation, and speculators can both cause the housing market to prosperity by increasing transactions at the house market, and also can increase price fluctuations in the housing market by stimulating inflationary expectations. The aim of the present study is to simulate a housing price volatility and examine the effect of speculation on the housing price volatility in the city of Shiraz. For this purpose, an agent-based model was used, considering four active agents in the housing market, including the seller, the buyer (sellers and buyers are present in the market with two motives of personal consumption and speculation), the developer, and real estate. Calibrated with data up to early 2022, the model simulates scenarios with varying proportions of speculative buyers, from 100% to 0%, over an eight-year forecast horizon ending in 2030. Results show that reducing speculative participation consistently decreases volatility magnitude, with the largest reduction—approximately 25%—occurring when speculators comprise 60% of buyers.  One of the most important concerns of housing policymakers worldwide is the emergence of a price volatility. There are two types of demand, including consumption and speculation, and speculators can both cause the housing market to prosperity by increasing transactions at the house market, and also can increase price fluctuations in the housing market by stimulating inflationary expectations. The aim of the present study is to simulate a housing price volatility and examine the effect of speculation on the housing price volatility in the city of Shiraz. For this purpose, an agent-based model was used, considering four active agents in the housing market, including the seller, the buyer (sellers and buyers are present in the market with two motives of personal consumption and speculation), the developer, and real estate. Calibrated with data up to early 2022, the model simulates scenarios with varying proportions of speculative buyers, from 100% to 0%, over an eight-year forecast horizon ending in 2030. Results show that reducing speculative participation consistently decreases volatility magnitude, with the largest reduction—approximately 25%—occurring when speculators comprise 60% of buyers.  Agent-Based modeling Housing Speculation Housing Price Volatility Housing Market Dynamics Heterogeneous Belief https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_6447_88ccf9a98e8519b2011df33952832f2f.pdf
bu ali sina university Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran 2322-2530 15 57 2026 05 22 Evaluating the Contribution of Tax Justice to the Tax Gap of Iranian Stock Market Companies Evaluating the Contribution of Tax Justice to the Tax Gap of Iranian Stock Market Companies 301 322 6625 10.22084/aes.2025.30951.3792 FA Ali Falahati Associate Professor of Economic, Faculty of Economic and Accounting, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran (Corresponding Author). 0000-0003-2880-6674 Zahra Shirzour Ali Abadi Assistant Professor of Economic, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran. 0000-0002-5540-6177 Journal Article 2025 05 09 One of the most important goals of the system’s general policies is to achieve higher tax revenues by establishing tax justice. In such a system, due to the attention to the two components of taxpayers’ willingness and ability to pay, the stability and dynamics of tax revenues increase. This study by using the statistics from 113 Iranian Stock Market companies, divided into two groups of industries with higher and lowers relative taxes over 2011-2023, and uses decomposition models to examine the contribution of tax justice to the tax gap. The results of the estimates show that profitability and company size cause a decrease and an increase in effective tax, respectively. However, the results of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition show that the contribution of tax justice to the tax gap in 2023 was 94 percent and in 2015 was 64 percent. Also, the results of Machado-Mata analysis show that in the lower 4 tax quantiles, the share of tax justice is 14 percent and in the top 4 tax quantiles, this share is 76 percent. Therefore, the use of strong and reliable tax collection tools in companies with lower tax payments despite having high profitability is the most important task of the Tax Affairs Organization. In this regard, the creation and development of a comprehensive financial information system for companies and the need to review tax amnesty are the most important policies to improve the share of tax justice in the tax gap. One of the most important goals of the system’s general policies is to achieve higher tax revenues by establishing tax justice. In such a system, due to the attention to the two components of taxpayers’ willingness and ability to pay, the stability and dynamics of tax revenues increase. This study by using the statistics from 113 Iranian Stock Market companies, divided into two groups of industries with higher and lowers relative taxes over 2011-2023, and uses decomposition models to examine the contribution of tax justice to the tax gap. The results of the estimates show that profitability and company size cause a decrease and an increase in effective tax, respectively. However, the results of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition show that the contribution of tax justice to the tax gap in 2023 was 94 percent and in 2015 was 64 percent. Also, the results of Machado-Mata analysis show that in the lower 4 tax quantiles, the share of tax justice is 14 percent and in the top 4 tax quantiles, this share is 76 percent. Therefore, the use of strong and reliable tax collection tools in companies with lower tax payments despite having high profitability is the most important task of the Tax Affairs Organization. In this regard, the creation and development of a comprehensive financial information system for companies and the need to review tax amnesty are the most important policies to improve the share of tax justice in the tax gap. Tax justice tax avoidance tax gap Decomposition Models https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_6625_a7b7e4b27722574c611fe91476a50238.pdf