bu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722Game theory and its role in determining optimal policies and strategic interaction between fiscal and monetary policymakers (Application of differential game theory and stackelberg games)Game theory and its role in determining optimal policies and strategic interaction between fiscal and monetary policymakers (Application of differential game theory and stackelberg games)134149210.22084/aes.2016.1492FADavoudMahmoudinia0000-0002-3567-3593RahimDallali EsfahaniProfessorJacobEngwerdaProfessorRasulBakhshi DastjerdiFaculityJournal Article20151020In this study, we follow several purpose. In the first section, the game theory concept and the formation of its fundamental concepts is examined. After that, we investigate that how von Neumann-Morgenstern (1944) and john Nash (1950-1953) works, caused the formation of modern game theory. Then, we discussed that how game theory enter to macroeconomic modern space. The achievement of this area can be found in Kydland and Prescott (1977). On the other hand, we consider the importance of differential game. This theory plays an important role in the applicable of strategic interaction between fiscal and monetary policy. Hence by extend Tabellini model (1986) in stackellberg case by open loop and feedback information, the equilibrium model in Iranian economy is investigated. The results show that, converge speed in open loop case is higher than feedback case and also debt equilibrium in the feedback case is lower than open loop case. On the other hand, the result shows that in stackelberg game between government and central bank, the level of debt can be brought to the target level, and even with huge oil revenues, the government could impose policy to prevent the creation of much money by central bank.In this study, we follow several purpose. In the first section, the game theory concept and the formation of its fundamental concepts is examined. After that, we investigate that how von Neumann-Morgenstern (1944) and john Nash (1950-1953) works, caused the formation of modern game theory. Then, we discussed that how game theory enter to macroeconomic modern space. The achievement of this area can be found in Kydland and Prescott (1977). On the other hand, we consider the importance of differential game. This theory plays an important role in the applicable of strategic interaction between fiscal and monetary policy. Hence by extend Tabellini model (1986) in stackellberg case by open loop and feedback information, the equilibrium model in Iranian economy is investigated. The results show that, converge speed in open loop case is higher than feedback case and also debt equilibrium in the feedback case is lower than open loop case. On the other hand, the result shows that in stackelberg game between government and central bank, the level of debt can be brought to the target level, and even with huge oil revenues, the government could impose policy to prevent the creation of much money by central bank.https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1492_e655c7716a4b3ea67f48c6322fc42ed6.pdfbu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722The effect of productivity shocks of Shanghai group countries on investment and employment in Iran's oil and gas sector with multi-region Computable General Equilibrium ModelThe effect of productivity shocks of Shanghai group countries on investment and employment in Iran's oil and gas sector with multi-region Computable General Equilibrium Model3551149310.22084/aes.2016.1493FAAbdulmajidJalaeeMahdiNejatiMinaJavadiniyaJournal Article20150407Productivity of any country contact with share of that country of world trade directly. Also oil and gas have always been considered the most important commodity in the world. Given that Iran is among the main countries in the global energy business, it is important to be able to consider the influence of productivity of major trading partners of Iran in the energy sector. In this study the effect of productivity shocks of Shanghai group countries, as major energy-demanding groups, on the oil and gas sector is taken into consideration. On this basis, the original question of the paper is whether productivity shocks in the industry of Shanghai group countries have any effect on Iran's oil and gas sectors. To respond this question the computable general equilibrium approach for four economical sections (industry, oil and gas, agriculture, and services) and the social accounting matrix in 2004 and GTAP8 database have been adopted. The results indicate that if the trade of Iran with Shanghai group counties increases while productivity in the industry of Shanghai group countries increases 5%, it will cause an increase of investment and employment in the oil and gas sector in Iran. Productivity of any country contact with share of that country of world trade directly. Also oil and gas have always been considered the most important commodity in the world. Given that Iran is among the main countries in the global energy business, it is important to be able to consider the influence of productivity of major trading partners of Iran in the energy sector. In this study the effect of productivity shocks of Shanghai group countries, as major energy-demanding groups, on the oil and gas sector is taken into consideration. On this basis, the original question of the paper is whether productivity shocks in the industry of Shanghai group countries have any effect on Iran's oil and gas sectors. To respond this question the computable general equilibrium approach for four economical sections (industry, oil and gas, agriculture, and services) and the social accounting matrix in 2004 and GTAP8 database have been adopted. The results indicate that if the trade of Iran with Shanghai group counties increases while productivity in the industry of Shanghai group countries increases 5%, it will cause an increase of investment and employment in the oil and gas sector in Iran. https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1493_1714726c817af50457d810aae9d27a2e.pdfbu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722Using the game theory in optimal allocation of water in ZayandehrudUsing the game theory in optimal allocation of water in Zayandehrud5380149410.22084/aes.2016.1494FASeyed ParvizJalili Kamjoo0000-0001-8998-543XRahmanKhoshakhlaghJournal Article20150502The purpose of this study is using game theory to evaluate the relationship between the five residential, agriculture, industry and mining, recreation and environment water demands in the Zayandehrud basin. In order to estimate the demand and supply functions, this study used system of simultaneous equations in the period 2001-2012. So the industry and mining and agricultural demand estimate with using a translog production function, the cost associated with it and using the second Taylor series expansion and the water cost share equation extracted in derivative with respect to the price of water and Shepard's lemma. The industry and mining demand Marginal price was estimated 12072.2 and 1698.442 Rials. Municipal water demand estimate as a nonlinear function by maximizing the Stone - Geary (Klean- Rubin) utility function restricted to family budget and the taking into account the minimum water requirement as a function of water temperature and population. The daily per capita minimum water requirement was estimated 101.91 Lit. The results of the above estimates under the two-play man and man (HH) and the game man and nature (HN) was evaluated in three states. The equilibrium estimate under the (HH) game, regardless of the demand for recreation and the environmental is for quantity 2696.74 mm<sup>3</sup> and price 1932.37. In a wider game, by taking WTP of water and consumption requirement in recreation and the environmental sector in horizontal plural form the water market equilibrium between man and nature play is 2743.58 for quantity and 1973.64 for price. Finally, in the third case in the water market, by taking WTP of water and nonuse water in recreation sector in horizontal plural form and WTP of water and consumption requirement in the environmental sector in horizontal plural form the water market equilibrium between man and nature play is 2777.83 for quantity and 20004.715 for price.The purpose of this study is using game theory to evaluate the relationship between the five residential, agriculture, industry and mining, recreation and environment water demands in the Zayandehrud basin. In order to estimate the demand and supply functions, this study used system of simultaneous equations in the period 2001-2012. So the industry and mining and agricultural demand estimate with using a translog production function, the cost associated with it and using the second Taylor series expansion and the water cost share equation extracted in derivative with respect to the price of water and Shepard's lemma. The industry and mining demand Marginal price was estimated 12072.2 and 1698.442 Rials. Municipal water demand estimate as a nonlinear function by maximizing the Stone - Geary (Klean- Rubin) utility function restricted to family budget and the taking into account the minimum water requirement as a function of water temperature and population. The daily per capita minimum water requirement was estimated 101.91 Lit. The results of the above estimates under the two-play man and man (HH) and the game man and nature (HN) was evaluated in three states. The equilibrium estimate under the (HH) game, regardless of the demand for recreation and the environmental is for quantity 2696.74 mm<sup>3</sup> and price 1932.37. In a wider game, by taking WTP of water and consumption requirement in recreation and the environmental sector in horizontal plural form the water market equilibrium between man and nature play is 2743.58 for quantity and 1973.64 for price. Finally, in the third case in the water market, by taking WTP of water and nonuse water in recreation sector in horizontal plural form and WTP of water and consumption requirement in the environmental sector in horizontal plural form the water market equilibrium between man and nature play is 2777.83 for quantity and 20004.715 for price.https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1494_fcdf25d6e191893e705819b177cddea0.pdfbu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722The Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Government Debt on Economic Growth in IranThe Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Government Debt on Economic Growth in Iran81107149510.22084/aes.2016.1495FAYunesSalmaniKazemYavariBahramSahabi0000-0001-5514-1773HoseinAsgharpourJournal Article20150805The structural budget deficit is one of the most important problems of developing countries. They borrow from the banking system, the private sector or outside world to finance this deficit. This approach can have different effects on the economy with regard to the composition and structure of debt and economic conditions of countries. The present study investigated the short-run and long-run effects of government debt on economic growth of Iran using ARDL in the period of 1975 to 2013. <br />Results showed that the ratio of government debt to GDP has a negative impact on economic growth. This impact on economic growth model based on oil revenues is more than the model based on non-oil GDP, also that in long run more than short term. Also results indicated the importance of physical capital is remarkable in both models in the short-term and long-term, but the human capital is significant only in non-oil growth pattern.The structural budget deficit is one of the most important problems of developing countries. They borrow from the banking system, the private sector or outside world to finance this deficit. This approach can have different effects on the economy with regard to the composition and structure of debt and economic conditions of countries. The present study investigated the short-run and long-run effects of government debt on economic growth of Iran using ARDL in the period of 1975 to 2013. <br />Results showed that the ratio of government debt to GDP has a negative impact on economic growth. This impact on economic growth model based on oil revenues is more than the model based on non-oil GDP, also that in long run more than short term. Also results indicated the importance of physical capital is remarkable in both models in the short-term and long-term, but the human capital is significant only in non-oil growth pattern.https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1495_fa1e9c965314ccd7810fb5ea838303e5.pdfbu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722A survey on the effect of interest rate increase of bank deposits on macroeconomic variables IranA survey on the effect of interest rate increase of bank deposits on macroeconomic variables Iran109132149610.22084/aes.2016.1496FAHadiGhafariMasoudSaadatmehr0000-0002-6560-1507AliSouriMohammadrezaRanjbar FallahJournal Article20150409Government interference in the financial markets by interest rate ceiling determination of bank deposits, high rate of legal reserve, interference on how bank credits distribution and capital limited codification is caued to reduce the bank interest rate with level lower than inflation rate and thus is negative the real interest rate. In economic contexts, these conditions is called financial repression. The past several decades, in Iran economics, the financial system had been had many restrictions which the important restriction is interest rate determination for bouth deposits and loans bank imperative form. But based on Mackinnon and Shawۥ theory, if interest rate increase of bank deposits can be cause to increase the economic growth in Iran? In present research, it has been investigated the bank deposits interest rate increase effect in Iranۥs economics. In order to, it was used DSGE mogel. The results indicated that bank deposits interest rste increase is caused to reduce the investment, bank credits and GDP. Thus is reduced economic growth. Therefore, Mackinnon and Shaw ۥtheory is rejected in economics of Iran.Government interference in the financial markets by interest rate ceiling determination of bank deposits, high rate of legal reserve, interference on how bank credits distribution and capital limited codification is caued to reduce the bank interest rate with level lower than inflation rate and thus is negative the real interest rate. In economic contexts, these conditions is called financial repression. The past several decades, in Iran economics, the financial system had been had many restrictions which the important restriction is interest rate determination for bouth deposits and loans bank imperative form. But based on Mackinnon and Shawۥ theory, if interest rate increase of bank deposits can be cause to increase the economic growth in Iran? In present research, it has been investigated the bank deposits interest rate increase effect in Iranۥs economics. In order to, it was used DSGE mogel. The results indicated that bank deposits interest rste increase is caused to reduce the investment, bank credits and GDP. Thus is reduced economic growth. Therefore, Mackinnon and Shaw ۥtheory is rejected in economics of Iran.https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1496_1415db70fe9ddb119e23e9b2808cde38.pdfbu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722Exchange RatePrediction Using Singular Spectrum AnalysisExchange RatePrediction Using Singular Spectrum Analysis133146149710.22084/aes.2016.1497FAMasoudYarmohammadi0000-0001-7038-7106RahimMahmoudvandJournal Article20160312The effects of foreign exchange rates on economic variables in every countries show the importance of modeling and prediction of exchange rates.In this paper, singular spectrum analysis (SSA), which is a non-parametric technique for time series analysis, are used for modeling and predicting daily exchange rate US dollar when compares with Iranian Rials (USD/IRR) during June 2013 to Sep. 2015. ARIMA model is used as a benchmark to assess the performance of SSA. In order to find the best ARIMA model, R package auto.arima is used. In addition, errors in sample and out of samples for short, medium and long term forecasts are considered to compare the capabilities of models with together. Results indicate that SSA is able to be used for modeling exchange rate data.The effects of foreign exchange rates on economic variables in every countries show the importance of modeling and prediction of exchange rates.In this paper, singular spectrum analysis (SSA), which is a non-parametric technique for time series analysis, are used for modeling and predicting daily exchange rate US dollar when compares with Iranian Rials (USD/IRR) during June 2013 to Sep. 2015. ARIMA model is used as a benchmark to assess the performance of SSA. In order to find the best ARIMA model, R package auto.arima is used. In addition, errors in sample and out of samples for short, medium and long term forecasts are considered to compare the capabilities of models with together. Results indicate that SSA is able to be used for modeling exchange rate data.https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1497_55c567fd4395ecef6d936cf77b8d5b2b.pdfbu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722Changes in Exchange Rate Pass-Through in IranChanges in Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Iran147170149810.22084/aes.2016.1498FASajadEbrahimiSeyed AliMadanizadehJournal Article20150914The exchange rate is one of the macroeconomic fundamentals which significantly affect inflation. For policy makers who care about the inflation control, analyzing the relationship between exchange rate changes and domestic inflation is very important matter. In this study we carry out an investigation about Exchange rate pass through in Iran using econometric model. According to the results, Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) in Iran fluctuates within 30-40 range. Also, exchange rate pass through in producer prices is significantly lower than consumer prices. Furthermore based on results, more distance from Dual exchange rate regime, higher degree of trade openness increase ERPT and lower inflation volatility and exchange rate volatility can decrease ERPT. In the most countries applying stable monetary policy and inflation targeting policy lead to decrease of ERPT. The exchange rate is one of the macroeconomic fundamentals which significantly affect inflation. For policy makers who care about the inflation control, analyzing the relationship between exchange rate changes and domestic inflation is very important matter. In this study we carry out an investigation about Exchange rate pass through in Iran using econometric model. According to the results, Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) in Iran fluctuates within 30-40 range. Also, exchange rate pass through in producer prices is significantly lower than consumer prices. Furthermore based on results, more distance from Dual exchange rate regime, higher degree of trade openness increase ERPT and lower inflation volatility and exchange rate volatility can decrease ERPT. In the most countries applying stable monetary policy and inflation targeting policy lead to decrease of ERPT. https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1498_ced556cd9f9c0c8315cfbe0744a3baf0.pdfbu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722The effect of contract theory on companies' utility in framework of agent theory
(Iran Tire Company Case Study)The effect of contract theory on companies' utility in framework of agent theory
(Iran Tire Company Case Study)171195149910.22084/aes.2016.1499FAZeynabShaeriMosayebPahlavani0000-0002-3101-9754SaeedIsazadehJournal Article20151114One of the negative phenomena that lead to the inappropriate decisions of economic agents in the market is asymmetric information. Therefore, Due to the importance of this subject and problems arising from it especially in companies and industrial organizations, in this paper, we make and solve numerical models of the raw material supply problems (an example of the adverse selection problems), and analyzing contract theory as a solution. We consider two supplier types (efficient and inefficient). We develop the first-best models, where the maker knows the supplier's type and second-best model, where the maker does not know the supplier's type. The results show that firstly a contract between raw material suppliers and Iran Tire company minimize the inefficiency resulted from asymmetric information and secondly Iran tire company second- best utility level is lower than the first- best one.One of the negative phenomena that lead to the inappropriate decisions of economic agents in the market is asymmetric information. Therefore, Due to the importance of this subject and problems arising from it especially in companies and industrial organizations, in this paper, we make and solve numerical models of the raw material supply problems (an example of the adverse selection problems), and analyzing contract theory as a solution. We consider two supplier types (efficient and inefficient). We develop the first-best models, where the maker knows the supplier's type and second-best model, where the maker does not know the supplier's type. The results show that firstly a contract between raw material suppliers and Iran Tire company minimize the inefficiency resulted from asymmetric information and secondly Iran tire company second- best utility level is lower than the first- best one.https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1499_6490791e7abf6b29a381288cc23a8223.pdfbu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722The Role of Structural and Exchange Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables DynamicsThe Role of Structural and Exchange Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables Dynamics197219150010.22084/aes.2016.1500FANaserElahiاستاد اقتصادAsadallahFarzinvashSeyed ZiyaaldinKiaalhoseiniManooshKhatibiMehdiSaremJournal Article20150823This paper has investigated the effects of structural and exchange shocks on the macroeconomic variables by using a DSGE model. In macroeconomic dynamics, three assumptions had made. First, economy faces nominal rigidities, second, because of fiscal dominance in Iran, defining monetary policy is not possible, and third, Iran economy is an small open economy that its macro variables have been affected by exchange shocks. In this way and by using quarterly data in the 1369-91 period, model parameters has estimated and the results show the effectiveness of real exchange rate, law of one price gap, and nominal exchange rate on inflation and economic growth. Moreover, based on simulation results, exchange rate fluctuations cause change in the equilibrium path of inflation and output. This paper has investigated the effects of structural and exchange shocks on the macroeconomic variables by using a DSGE model. In macroeconomic dynamics, three assumptions had made. First, economy faces nominal rigidities, second, because of fiscal dominance in Iran, defining monetary policy is not possible, and third, Iran economy is an small open economy that its macro variables have been affected by exchange shocks. In this way and by using quarterly data in the 1369-91 period, model parameters has estimated and the results show the effectiveness of real exchange rate, law of one price gap, and nominal exchange rate on inflation and economic growth. Moreover, based on simulation results, exchange rate fluctuations cause change in the equilibrium path of inflation and output. https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1500_cfa5301358b9fcbe7aa45b1ceea088c6.pdfbu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722Comparison of the Effect of Subsidies Targeted Policy of Oil and Gas Manufactured on Growth of the Industry, Agriculture and Services SectorsComparison of the Effect of Subsidies Targeted Policy of Oil and Gas Manufactured on Growth of the Industry, Agriculture and Services Sectors221242150110.22084/aes.2016.1501FAAkbarKhodabakhshiFardinّّKaramiJournal Article20160226Maybe it can be said that the issue of implementing the policy of making targeted subsidies the government's economic policy over the past two decades. Carrier's energy subsidies as part of this policy in place and is of special importance in the economy. The importance of this issue has caused the subject of targeted subsidies as a matter Effective and decisive attracted the attention of researchers. In this study, tried to consider of the effects of subsidies energy Carrier's (Products oil and natural gas) on the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of the economy of Iran in three important section separately (agriculture, industry and services section) that are examined. For this purpose input-output table 1380 Statistical Center of Iran (input-output price model) is used. The results show that, with the rising cost of energy Carrier's (Products of the oil and natural gas), agricultural output, due to the lower dependence on oil products and natural gas energy Carrier's current price, relative lower than other economic sectors increases. Further industrial production, due to high energy consumption by industry, will be reduced. It is obtained In the Sector of Services different results.Maybe it can be said that the issue of implementing the policy of making targeted subsidies the government's economic policy over the past two decades. Carrier's energy subsidies as part of this policy in place and is of special importance in the economy. The importance of this issue has caused the subject of targeted subsidies as a matter Effective and decisive attracted the attention of researchers. In this study, tried to consider of the effects of subsidies energy Carrier's (Products oil and natural gas) on the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of the economy of Iran in three important section separately (agriculture, industry and services section) that are examined. For this purpose input-output table 1380 Statistical Center of Iran (input-output price model) is used. The results show that, with the rising cost of energy Carrier's (Products of the oil and natural gas), agricultural output, due to the lower dependence on oil products and natural gas energy Carrier's current price, relative lower than other economic sectors increases. Further industrial production, due to high energy consumption by industry, will be reduced. It is obtained In the Sector of Services different results.https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1501_5cbdfd0dfa22a3fca7266376887f549b.pdfbu ali sina universityJournal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran2322-253051820160722Economic Valuation of Environmental benefits (A Case of Bamdezh Wetland)Economic Valuation of Environmental benefits (A Case of Bamdezh Wetland)243269150210.22084/aes.2016.1502FAAmirhosseinMontazerhojat0000-0002-2300-8190BehzadMansouriJournal Article20160120Wetlands surrounding communities have enormous benefits of this natural capital. Economic valuation study of society’s preferences for any change in the status of wetlands, can be direct or indirect interests them money and provide useful information to the planners. Bamdezh wetland is one of four large wetland with an area of 4000 hectares in Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran is located. In this study, using market prices for direct use value of wetland have been calculated for 2015. The interests of agriculture, horticulture, animal husbandry and fishing respectively. Also, using the model of the willingness to pay for nonmarket characteristics of wetlands, including the natural landscape, ecological function and biodiversity has been estimated. The values obtained for the willingness to pay was extended to the whole of society and thus the annual value of use and nonuse values were obtained. Finally, in the absence of social interest rate and using the real interest rate in agriculture and natural resources, all the annual values obtained were converted to the total value. This number was 47289 billion, equivalent to 1.9 billion dollars, which represents positive values and preferences of society to protect its wetlands. So any protection program by policy makers and managers will be actively supported by the population if the level of public awareness about the values improves. The results of this study as a basic reference can be studied in this context.Wetlands surrounding communities have enormous benefits of this natural capital. Economic valuation study of society’s preferences for any change in the status of wetlands, can be direct or indirect interests them money and provide useful information to the planners. Bamdezh wetland is one of four large wetland with an area of 4000 hectares in Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran is located. In this study, using market prices for direct use value of wetland have been calculated for 2015. The interests of agriculture, horticulture, animal husbandry and fishing respectively. Also, using the model of the willingness to pay for nonmarket characteristics of wetlands, including the natural landscape, ecological function and biodiversity has been estimated. The values obtained for the willingness to pay was extended to the whole of society and thus the annual value of use and nonuse values were obtained. Finally, in the absence of social interest rate and using the real interest rate in agriculture and natural resources, all the annual values obtained were converted to the total value. This number was 47289 billion, equivalent to 1.9 billion dollars, which represents positive values and preferences of society to protect its wetlands. So any protection program by policy makers and managers will be actively supported by the population if the level of public awareness about the values improves. The results of this study as a basic reference can be studied in this context.https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1502_77f959f119f4fb2321e9ce801e2f5163.pdf