تورم و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای خاورمیانه: رویکرد پانل آستانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مدیریت، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و حسابداری ، واحدفیروز آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروز آباد ،ایران

2 دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آیت الله بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران

چکیده

اقتصاددانان و سیاست‌گذاران در سراسر جهان رشد اقتصادی و تورم را به‌عنوان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی مهم درنظر می‌گیرند. هم‌بستگی بین این دو متغیر موضوعی جذاب در دهه‌های اخیر بوده است، اما ادبیات درمورد این رابطه چندان روشن نیست؛ بنابراین، این پژوهش با هدف بررسی ارتباط بین تورم و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای خاورمیانه طی دورۀ 2021-2000م. با استفاده از مدل پانل آستانه‌ای انجام شده است. یافته‌های تجربی نشان می‌دهد که بین تورم و رشد اقتصادی در این کشورها رابطۀ غیرخطی وجود دارد. به‌طور خاص، زمانی‌که تورم زیر 10.1% باشد، افزایش تورم تأثیری مثبت اما بی‌معنی بر رشد اقتصادی دارد. با این‌حال، فراتر از این سطح آستانه، افزایش تورم تأثیر منفی قابل‌توجهی بر رشد اقتصادی دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Inflation and Economic Growth in Middle East Countries; A Threshold Panel Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Leila Mohammad Sadeghi 1
  • Haniyeh Sedaghat Kalmarzi 2
  • Younes Nademi 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Firoozabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozabad, Iran
2 Ph.D. in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran
چکیده [English]

Economists and policymakers worldwide consider economic growth and inflation as crucial macroeconomic variables. The correlation between these two variables has been a captivating topic in recent decades, but the literature lacks clarity on this relationship. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the connection between inflation and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries during the 2000-2021 period using a threshold panel model. The empirical findings suggest that there is a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth in these countries. Specifically, when inflation is below 10.1 percent, it has not a significant impact on economic growth. However, beyond this threshold level of inflation, it has a significant negative impact on economic growth. High inflation as a way of increasing inflation expectations may increase the cost of production and decrease production and economic growth. Furthermore, high inflation leads to high volatility in inflation expectations which increases uncertainty in investment and production. This volatility damages people’s confidence in government policies which may decrease the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in the economy. Moreover, high inflation decreases the competitive power of domestic producers against foreign producers which decreases exports and ultimately leads to decreased economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Inflation
  • Economic Growth
  • Middle East Countries
  • Threshold Panel Approach

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فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
دوره 12، شماره 47
آبان 1402
صفحه 159-179

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